Donald Trump's wildly fluctuating tariff policies have created anxiety and confusion in many parts of the world. In the US vaping industry, the consequences of the measures against China, in particular, are clearly visible - and they are compounded by a patchwork of local vaping laws in states and cities. Supplies of Chinese disposable vapes have plummeted, and neither distributors nor consumers know where it will eventually land.
During the spring, Trump has swung wildly in his tariffs and threats against Chinese imports. At first, tariffs were to be raised to extreme levels of 145 per cent, before being reduced to around 30 per cent, but then raised again in various announcements. The sudden adjustments have created massive uncertainty that has now had tangible effects in the vaping world as well. Importers are having difficulty planning and many traders are risking bankruptcy, various US media report.
Drop from 1200 to 71 shiploads
In May 2024, the US received nearly 1,200 shipments of vejp from China - and as many know, the East is where the lion's share of vejp products are produced. A year later, the figure had dropped all the way down to 71 shipments, Reuters reports - citing data obtained from the US Customs Service. Chinese factories are still producing, but shipments are being cut off at both ports and border checkpoints, often in combination with Food and Drug Administration (FDA) crackdowns.
A distributor in Texas tells Reuters that he used to receive 100 cases of "Geek Bar", a popular brand in the US, a week. Now it's down to around 10 cases. Customers quickly notice when favourite flavours disappear, but demand doesn't drop significantly.
- If the price goes up, it goes up. We are talking about nicotine here," says the distributor.
Many shops have introduced purchase caps and price adjustments - and many report panic buying from returning customers.
Redirection and grey import
Manufacturers try to find loopholes in the system. Vapes are being rebranded as toys, clothes or mobile phone accessories to avoid customs duties in a kind of grey import, according to VapingPost. At the same time, some companies are moving their production to countries like Indonesia or Vietnam, where tariff levels are lower. But changes in manufacturing and logistics take a long time.
The federal uncertainty around tariffs is also reinforced by a patchwork of local laws. Vaping is not completely banned in any US state - but many states have imposed strict restrictions. California, Massachusetts, New York and New Jersey, among others, have banned flavoured e-cigarettes. Some cities have gone even further and introduced local sales bans.
At the same time, it is perfectly legal to sell flavoured e-cigarettes in other parts of the country and the uncertainty about what applies where creates an unclear market where supply, rules and demand differ greatly depending on where you are.
Unclear outlook - but clear impact
Trump's many changes to tariff policy have left the market in limbo. No one knows what levels will apply next month - and each adjustment creates new problems in the supply chain.
What started as a trade war over steel, cars and technology has also become a kind of nicotine war, with the vaping market in the firing line.
